On Mar 22, 2012, at 1:23 AM, drago01 wrote:
On Thu, Mar 22, 2012 at 8:16 AM, Chris Murphy
<lists(a)colorremedies.com> wrote:
> our "computers" are about to become typewriters. It will not be a decade
longer.
>
>
http://www.engadget.com/2012/02/03/canalys-more-smartphones-than-pcs-ship...
While I agree that we will see more smartphones and tablets in the
future the people that actually replace there traditional computers
with tablets or even smartphones are near zero.
You're assuming they had a computer to begin with. The data is noisy but there's a
significant minority who do not have computers, now buying a smart phone. This will grow.
They may never end up with a desktop. Even Apple has disconnected a requirement for having
a desktop. My parents are candidates for replacing their laptop with just an iPad. Maybe
1/4 of the friends I have use a desktop/laptop once a week or less. And increasingly less
often. Their phone? Can't live without it. It's already a primary device.
Sells do not really tell the whole story as many people simply
don't
have a need to buy new laptops/desktops because what they have is
"good enough" so they spend there money on other gadgets.
Mobile devices are replaced more frequently than desktops, which could also skew the data
toward mobile. But Apple didn't become the biggest company in the world by market
capitalization, eclipsing Microsoft and even Exxon-Mobile, by selling desktops and
laptops. It's iOS. (And the iMonostore.)
Desktop computers are used overwhelmingly for email and web browsing. It's total
overkill. The desktop computer is a super computer that no consumer really needs. It's
a dying market. It's now servers and mobile. The transitional element will be
laptops/ultrabooks (netbooks obviously are dead) which will keep desktop operating systems
and x86 around as a significant minority, but not for long.
Thunderbolt on an ARM tablet to connect a larger display, bluetooth keyboard, and internet
access and the overwhelming majority can do what they need to do. The economies of scale
of desktops, even in business, is dropping rapidly. For home users, it has already
happened a while ago. They don't need a desktop. They probably don't need a laptop
either.
Chris Murphy